— A collective work examines the global fallout from the conflict
The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) has released a collective volume titled “Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: the Price of a Distant War,” dedicated to the geopolitical, economic and security repercussions of the war between Iran, the United States and Israel, as well as the tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Bringing together contributions from several international experts—including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh and Rida Lyammouri—the book examines the conflict’s effects on various world regions, with a special focus on Morocco, Africa and the Global South.
The authors argue that the Hormuz crisis goes far beyond a regional conflict. It exposes the vulnerabilities of a globalized economy heavily reliant on the energy, trade and logistics flows that pass through this strategic maritime chokepoint, through which a significant share of the world’s oil, gas, fertilizers and international commerce transits.
One chapter, written by economist Hinh T. Dinh, analyzes the impact of a 20% rise in oil prices on the economies of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt.
Using an input-output economic model, the study concludes that Morocco appears as the country most exposed to the repercussions of an oil shock linked to the Hormuz crisis. The analysis highlights vulnerabilities in several sectors, particularly agriculture, construction, transport and various energy-dependent activities.
In contrast, Egypt would partly benefit from the price increase thanks to state oil revenues, while Tunisia would show an overall balanced picture despite significant disparities between sectors.
+ A challenge to the international order +
Beyond the economic dimensions, several authors consider the 2026 war a turning point in the evolution of the international order.
Ferid Belhaj believes the conflict illustrates the growing fragmentation of the global system and the weakening of traditional cooperation and deterrence mechanisms. Marcus Vinicius de Freitas, for his part, sees the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.
In another contribution, Ian Lesser analyzes the war’s impact on transatlantic relations, arguing that it has deepened divisions between the United States and several European countries over the use of force and the management of international crises.
The book also underscores the risks to African energy security, the balances in the Sahel and South American economies, while highlighting the growing role of strategic minerals in new global geopolitical dynamics.
The PCNS says this collective work aims to contribute to the debate on changes in the international order and on the strategies states will need to adopt in the face of crises that could durably disrupt supply chains, energy markets and global geopolitical equilibria.
