Cameroon’s economic outlook is facing a critical turning point. The Hilli Episeyo, a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessel anchored off the coast of Kribi since 2018, is set to depart in July 2026 once its contract with the Société nationale des hydrocarbures (SNH) expires. This milestone has been flagged by the National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) as a key factor in the projected slowdown for the national economy in 2026, alongside global geopolitical tensions and weakening export sectors.
The CNEF’s latest conjoncture report forecasts Cameroon’s GDP growth at around 3.2% in 2026, down from 3.5% the previous year, with a further dip to 3.1% expected in 2027. An alternative scenario in the same document presents a slightly more optimistic outlook—3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027—but the underlying trend remains unchanged: the extractive sector will drag growth downward, subtracting 0.4 percentage points from GDP in both years. The petroleum GDP, which includes all hydrocarbon-related activities, is projected to shrink by 16.1% in 2026 and 18% in 2027.
LNG sector already in decline before floating plant departure
The exit of the Hilli Episeyo comes at a challenging moment for Cameroon’s LNG industry. Export revenues from liquefied natural gas dropped to 350.2 billion FCFA in 2025, down from 381 billion in 2024, 421 billion in 2023, and a peak of 622 billion in 2022—an 8.1% year-on-year decline. This downward trend persisted into early 2026, with total export earnings falling by 23.6% in the first quarter to 606.9 billion FCFA. Within that same period, LNG exports plummeted by 28.4%, while crude oil exports declined by 14.4%.
Despite these setbacks, LNG still accounted for 11.4% of Cameroon’s total export revenues in 2025. The departure of the floating liquefaction unit will strip the country of a vital revenue stream just as other key export sectors struggle. Over the same period, earnings from cocoa and derivatives fell by 37.7%, timber by 11.5%, aluminum by 53.7%, and raw rubber by 16.7%. The compounding declines across multiple industries heighten the impact of the looming gas sector shock.
Current account deficit widens and fiscal space tightens
The macroeconomic balance will bear the brunt of this transition. The CNEF projects the current account deficit to widen to 5.4% of GDP in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027, up from an estimated 3.2% in 2025. Similarly, the budget deficit is expected to rise from 1.7% to 2.1% of GDP over the same period. These projections also factor in the global trade slowdown, higher shipping costs, and modest growth in public revenues.
The volatility in global oil prices presents policymakers with a familiar dilemma. Keeping pump prices stable would require increased fuel subsidies, placing an immediate strain on the national budget. Alternatively, raising retail prices could reignite inflation and erode household purchasing power. While the CNEF does not take a definitive stance, it emphasizes the shrinking room for maneuver in managing these trade-offs.
Yoyo-Yolanda and new blocs offer no quick fix
The SNH is banking on upstream diversification to offset the loss of the Hilli Episeyo’s production. The most significant initiative is the Yoyo-Yolanda cross-border field, shared with Equatorial Guinea, which holds an estimated 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and requires an investment of nearly $4 billion. However, progress remains stalled pending the completion of technical and commercial agreements, financing mobilization, and the construction of dedicated infrastructure.
In parallel, the national oil company continues to offer new exploration blocks in the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. While negotiations for production-sharing contracts are underway, there is no guarantee of commercially viable discoveries or timely production start-ups. The primary risk lies in the duration of the transition: the longer the gap between the departure of the floating plant and the entry into operation of new facilities, the deeper the negative impact on Cameroon’s economic growth. None of the announced alternatives are expected to offset the projected decline in LNG exports in the short term.
