Cameroon has positioned the renewal of its partnership with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a cornerstone of its 2027-2029 medium-term economic and budgetary planning. The Document de programmation économique et budgétaire à moyen terme submitted to Parliament by the Ministry of Finance outlines a projected 300 billion FCFA boost from a new IMF program. This amount accounts for nearly 9.5% of the estimated 3,161.5 billion FCFA financing needs for 2027, underscoring the program’s critical role in bridging the fiscal gap.
The stakes are high. The previous IMF program, finalized in 2021 and extended by one year, concluded in July 2025. Since then, Finance Minister Louis Paul Motazé has consistently advocated for a new agreement, reiterating this position during the October 30, 2025, cabinet meeting. While the Prime Minister has deferred the formal decision to open negotiations to the Presidency, the inclusion of this funding in the triennial framework signals the government’s commitment to this scenario as its baseline.
Funding Shortfall Tied to Future IMF Program
Cameroon’s projected 2027 budget deficit is set to reach 1,018 billion FCFA, up from 808.5 billion FCFA in 2026. Nearly 30% of this gap could be covered by IMF-linked support. Additional obligations include 2,143.5 billion FCFA in financing and treasury charges, primarily driven by debt repayments and the clearance of arrears. Debt service alone is expected to total 1,602.5 billion FCFA.
To meet these obligations, the government plans to draw 866.7 billion FCFA from project loans, raise 400 billion FCFA through public bond issuances, secure 250 billion FCFA in direct bank financing, and withdraw 131.5 billion FCFA from its reserves at the BEAC. A new external borrowing of 1,000 billion FCFA is also on the table for 2027, mirroring a similar operation planned for 2026. The Document de programmation économique et budgétaire à moyen terme explicitly labels the absence of an IMF agreement as a major risk to medium-term fiscal sustainability.
Without an IMF program, the Treasury would need to compensate for the 300 billion FCFA shortfall through additional borrowing, heightened domestic resource mobilization, or spending cuts. However, the Ministry of Finance has highlighted challenges such as the rising cost of domestic financing, persistent high interest rates, and the still-limited depth of the CEMAC financial market. These constraints make it difficult to easily replace concessional support with commercial debt.
IMF Agreement as a Catalyst for Other Partners
A fresh IMF program would not only provide direct financial support but also unlock critical backing from the World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), European Union, and bilateral partners. These institutions frequently tie their aid to the implementation of reforms and adherence to macroeconomic targets aligned with IMF programs.
Between 2017 and 2025, Cameroon leveraged IMF programs to secure approximately 2,600 billion FCFA in budgetary support, combining IMF disbursements with contributions from other partners. Minister Motazé has warned that the loss of an IMF program would jeopardize these funds. The government is also pursuing measures to broaden the non-oil tax base, modernize revenue collection agencies, and streamline current expenditures to prioritize investment.
A Regional Lock Before Washington’s Approval
Cameroon’s efforts are, however, contingent on broader dynamics within the CEMAC region. Within the bloc, IMF-supported national programs require regional assurances on monetary policy, foreign exchange reserve rebuilding, and alignment of member states’ fiscal trajectories.
The review of CEMAC’s common policies, originally scheduled for December 2025, has been postponed. Authorities cite insufficient alignment of national fiscal policies with regional strategies and pending agreements on reform-linked assurances as key reasons for the delay. While this regional validation is a prerequisite, it does not guarantee a bilateral deal between Cameroon and the IMF.
The timing adds pressure. By embedding 300 billion FCFA in conditional IMF support into its 2027 financing plan, the Cameroonian government has tied a portion of its fiscal credibility to the outcome of negotiations. Prolonged delays could force the Treasury to rely more heavily on commercial debt or scale back expenditures, undermining investment ambitions.
