The administration of former US President Donald Trump is evaluating the feasibility of expanding its military operations to include the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group operating primarily in Mali. This consideration comes nearly four years after France’s withdrawal from the country following a decade-long intervention.
While no final decision has been reached, discussions within the US government are underway. Sebastian Gorka, a counterterrorism advisor to the National Security Council, is among the strongest advocates for a military campaign. However, other officials remain skeptical about the long-term benefits of such an operation. Should Washington proceed, Mali would become the eighth country targeted by US airstrikes during Trump’s second term.
The White House has neither confirmed nor denied reports of imminent strikes. A senior administration official acknowledged that the US is actively encouraging West African and North African nations to bolster their counterterrorism capabilities by acquiring American defense equipment and services. The official described the jihadist threat in the Sahel as a “multinational challenge.”
The JNIM has emerged as one of the most formidable militant groups in West Africa, with operations extending beyond Mali into several coastal nations. Analysts note that the group’s influence has grown in direct proportion to the deteriorating security landscape across the Sahel in recent years.
Potential pitfalls: Is military action the right response?
Security experts warn that a US-led intervention could backfire. Corinne Dufka, an independent Sahel analyst, cautioned that targeting JNIM leaders might undermine efforts to deradicalize and demobilize fighters from one of the region’s most sophisticated jihadist networks. Others argue that airstrikes would fail to alter the conflict’s dynamics, pointing to France’s decade-long deployment followed by Russia’s five-year presence in Mali—neither of which succeeded in curbing militant expansion.
There are also concerns that weakening JNIM could inadvertently strengthen rival factions, particularly the Islamic State in the Sahel (IS Sahel), which has clashed with JNIM in the past. Additionally, the move risks escalating tensions with Russian forces currently operating in Mali. Following Russia’s engagement in several African nations, including Guinea, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, and Mali, US officials have expressed doubts about Moscow’s counterterrorism effectiveness. One senior US official remarked, “We hope African nations observe Russia’s lackluster performance in combating terrorism.”
