Driving out the French army and cutting ties with the West were supposed to usher in an era of ‘second independence’ for Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Four years after the first coups, populist rhetoric collides with a dramatic reality: dependency has simply changed masters, insecurity is exploding and economies are suffocating.
The security mirage: The boomerang effect of the Russian partnership
The first argument of the military regimes to justify their coups was France’s inability to eradicate jihadism. Yet the chosen remedy is proving worse than the disease. By replacing Western forces with Russian paramilitaries from Africa Corps (formerly Wagner), Bamako, Ouagadougou and Niamey opted for a scorched-earth strategy.
On the ground, terrorist groups (JNIM and EIGS) have never been so powerful. They now encircle strategic cities and cut vital supply routes. More seriously, the human cost is terrifying. Reports from independent organisations point to a multiplication of abuses against civilian populations during joint operations. Far from being protected, the peoples of the Sahel are caught in a vice between jihadist terror and the brutality of new security auxiliaries, while the number of internally displaced people hits historic records.
Diplomatic isolation: Institutional flight forward
To mask internal failures, the AES leaders have chosen a policy of permanent rupture. The spectacular withdrawal from ECOWAS deprived the three countries of their natural economic partners. More recently, their collective withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and restrictions imposed on UN agencies complete the transformation of the region into a diplomatic grey zone.
This institutional flight forward primarily serves to protect the regimes in power from any external scrutiny of the human rights situation or respect for democratic transition timelines. Promised elections to return power to civilians are systematically postponed indefinitely, turning supposedly temporary transitions into well-established military dictatorships.
Struggling economy and social regression
On the economic front, the balance is equally heavy. The discourse on monetary sovereignty and self-sufficiency clashes with the harsh reality of numbers. Regional isolation has led to a dizzying rise in the cost of living and basic necessities. Local businesses suffocate under the weight of indirect sanctions, falling foreign investment and chronic power cuts that paralyse Bamako and Ouagadougou.
As national budgets are bled dry to finance the war effort and pay for Russian mercenaries (often remunerated through mining concession grants), basic social services collapse. Schools remain closed by the thousands and the health system is drained. Instead of investing in human development, national resources are confiscated by military apparatuses.
A change of masters, not liberation
Four years after the Great Divorce from Paris, the assessment is bitter. The Sahel is neither safer, nor more prosperous, nor more independent. By chasing away an imperfect but predictable Western partner, the AES leaders have thrown their countries into the arms of an opportunistic Russian power, whose only objective is geopolitical. The promised ‘second independence’ has turned into a tragic economic and security regression, where the sovereignty brandished at the top is merely a smokescreen for the asphyxiation of the people below.
