What is in store for Group D’s final chapter? Ahead of the third matchday, two things are clear: the United States, with six points from two wins, have already secured top spot and a place in the knockout stage. Turkey, their opponent in Los Angeles, are already eliminated. So that fixture may lack intensity—it carries no competitive weight for either side.

To attack or run down the clock?

But a goal-fest is far from guaranteed in the other Group D match between Paraguay and Australia. Taking place simultaneously in Santa Clara, near San Francisco, this clash has real stakes: the second qualifying spot. Both teams have three points. Australia sit second thanks to a superior goal difference (0) compared to Paraguay (-2). If they draw, both would almost certainly advance—under the new 48-team format, four points should be enough to finish among the eight best third-placed sides. Paraguay would then be virtually sure of a place in the round of 16.

Will these two sides push for the second spot and go all out for a win, or will they settle for a draw that suits their ambitions? Anything is possible. But World Cup history has seen many a tame group-stage finale where both teams simply passed the ball and let the clock run. Whatever happens, Australia and Paraguay will have a clearer picture after the results of Groups E and F, which play earlier. And if results go their way, staying up until 4 a.m. might not be worth it.