Fighting between Kinshasa’s forces and the March 23 Movement (M23) rebels has escalated in recent months in eastern DRC, against the backdrop of an Ebola outbreak. A year ago, a peace deal was signed in Washington, attended by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Congolese and Rwandan counterparts.
After three decades of conflict, the Democratic Republic of Congo is experiencing renewed violence following the resurgence of the M23 in 2021. According to the United Nations, this armed group receives military backing from Rwanda.
On April 9, 2025, following a meeting between Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, negotiations began in Doha between the Congo River Alliance—the M23’s political wing—and the Congolese government, with Qatar acting as mediator.
Meanwhile, the United States spearheaded talks aimed at a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. After months of discussions, a deal was finally signed on June 27, 2025, in the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Since then, the region has been in a “stalemate,” observes Bob Kabamba, a political scientist at the University of Liège. “The rebellion’s territorial gains remain under its control, and we are seeing exchanges of fire and cease-fire violations from both the Congolese government and the M23.”
Despite the agreement, the M23 “continues to recruit troops,” the professor adds. “In this logic, the rebellion currently holds the upper hand. … It is this balance of power on the ground that will determine each side’s ability to impose its agenda in the future,” he concludes.
