The coup’s fallen promises: how the Tiani regime deepened Niger’s troubles
When Niger’s National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP) seized power on 26 July 2023, its stated mission was clear: to reverse the country’s drift into insecurity, mismanagement and lost sovereignty under President Mohamed Bazoum. Yet more than three years later, the evidence points in the opposite direction. Instead of solving old problems, the military regime has amplified them—turning rhetoric into reality in ways that even its critics did not foresee.
The fallout has sparked a national conversation: are Nigeriens better off under this new order, or is the transition deepening the very issues that justified the coup in the first place?
Sovereignty claims and murky alliances: a paradoxical shift
After expelling French and American forces—once framed as the cornerstone of regained sovereignty—Niamey’s leadership has courted new partners without clarifying the terms of engagement. The arrival of Russian-linked entities and Algeria’s troop deployment to Madama, some 200 km inside Nigerien territory, highlight a paradox: the same officials who once decried foreign interference now preside over opaque alliances that lack parliamentary scrutiny or public consent.
The absence of transparency is striking. No national debate preceded these decisions, no elected body ratified them. This abrupt pivot—from denouncing ‘foreign puppeteering’ to embracing it under new labels—has left many citizens questioning the true meaning of sovereignty under the Tiani administration.
Security in tatters: promises unkept, attacks unabated
‘Restoring security’ was the coup’s most urgent pledge. Yet across Diffa, Maradi, Tahoua and Tillabéri, life remains on hold. Schools shuttered for months on end. Health centres operating at reduced capacity. Armed groups such as EIGS and JNIM continue to exploit gaps in state control, leaving entire communities isolated and vulnerable.
Despite regular military operations and official statements celebrating tactical victories, the operational reality tells a different story. Insurgent attacks have not diminished; they’ve adapted. Civilians are paying the price with displacement, disrupted livelihoods and a climate of fear that shows no signs of easing.
Broken development dreams: stalled projects and dashed hopes
The regime’s economic narrative promised autonomy and progress. But inertia has taken hold. Delays in finalising the Kafra oil permit and indecision over the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline illustrate a broader stalemate. Major infrastructure initiatives remain stalled, casting doubt on the feasibility of self-reliance in energy and leaving foreign investors hesitant.
For a country sitting on significant oil and gas reserves, this hesitation translates into missed opportunities. Instead of moving toward energy independence, Niger risks falling behind, its development agenda mired in uncertainty.
Where are the critics? The silence of erstwhile allies
A year ago, civil society and political opponents vigorously challenged Bazoum’s government. Today, many remain conspicuously quiet. While the regime cites ‘national unity’ to justify restrictive measures, critics point to a double standard: dissent tolerated under civilian rule is now met with legal intimidation or open suppression.
This shift has eroded public trust. Those who once rallied behind sovereignty slogans now question whether the military’s rise has delivered accountability—or merely replaced one form of governance with another, more authoritarian one.
The road ahead: what comes next for Niger?
With no clear exit strategy and mounting popular discontent, the Tiani regime faces a pivotal moment. The public debate has shifted from ‘Was the coup justified?’ to ‘Where is this transition taking us?’
Nigeriens deserve transparency. They deserve a leadership willing to explain why severed alliances have not translated into restored security, why economic promises remain unfulfilled, and why the promise of self-determination rings hollow while new dependencies take root.
As the country marks another year under military rule, the question lingers: will Niamey confront its contradictions—or continue down a path that deepens the very crises it claimed to fix?