A coordinated assault across multiple cities, including Bamako, by Tuareg rebels allied with jihadist factions is placing Mali’s military regime under immense pressure. The junta’s Russian allies, who had replaced French forces, notably evacuated the northern city of Kidal without firing a single shot.
Remarkable video footage has emerged showing a convoy of vehicles carrying Russian soldiers departing the city of Kidal in northern Mali. This retreat represents a defeat without a battle, as the new masters of the city are Tuareg insurgents operating in conjunction with jihadists.
This Russian withdrawal is particularly noteworthy because it followed a day of simultaneous attacks claimed by the jihadist Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) across various parts of the country, including the capital, Bamako. In their statement, the group urged the Russians not to get involved, as a way to preserve potential future cooperation.
Consequently, the 2,500 Russian military personnel in Mali, part of the Africa Corps which succeeded the Wagner group, remained inactive as the Bamako regime faced its most severe security crisis since taking power five years ago. This development is a major setback for the Malian putschists who expelled the former colonial power, France, in 2022, and a significant failure for Russia, which was initially hailed as a savior.
The Malian regime has sustained severe blows
The country’s powerful Minister of Defense was killed on Saturday during an attack on his residence. Furthermore, jihadists and rebels launched coordinated assaults on several regions without being detected, and it appears they have successfully expanded their control over large swathes of the nation.
The capture of Kidal is rich with symbolism. This stronghold of the Tuareg rebellion was recaptured in 2023 by the Malian army with Russian support, after eleven years in the hands of supporters of Azawad, the name rebels give their region. That victory, achieved shortly after the departure of French and United Nations forces, had significantly boosted the prestige of Colonel Assimi Goïta, the junta’s leader.
Three years on, this strategy is failing
The consolidation of power, marked by the dissolution of political parties and the appointment of the head of state without elections, is not sitting well with a segment of the population, which is often caught in the crossfire. A few months ago, Bamako endured a virtual siege that prevented fuel from reaching the city from neighboring countries. While it is difficult to predict if the Malian government could fall, it is undoubtedly in a precarious position.
The risk is twofold: first for Mali, which could fragment between Tuareg separatists in the north and various jihadist groups vying for territory. The second risk is for the wider region, as JNIM, the group leading the charge in Mali, is an Al Qaeda affiliate with regional ambitions. Niger and Burkina Faso, fellow members of the Alliance of Sahel States with Mali, would be the next targets in the event of Bamako’s fall. Beyond them, coastal nations already threatened by jihadist incursions would be at risk.
This catastrophic situation is the epilogue of a failed decade
Since France intervened in 2014 to save Bamako from an advancing jihadist column, the French counter-offensive had enabled Mali to regain control of the north, which had slipped from its grasp.
However, the subsequent actions did not match this initial success, fueling a growing frustration that led to military coups and the departure of the French, who were replaced by the Russians. Four years later, the outcome is another failure, to the great misfortune of the population.
