In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jnim, an al-Qaïda-affiliated jihadist group, has escalated dramatically over the weekend. At least a dozen buses were torched along the critical Ségou-Bamako corridor, the main supply route bringing goods from eastern regions into the capital. Simultaneously, attackers targeted and disabled key electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region. Despite ongoing military operations on multiple fronts, the Malian army has yet to break the economic stranglehold gripping the nation.
Manantali: a strategic asset in a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali’s power lines is far from random. Managed under a tripartite agreement involving Mauritania and Senegal through the Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS), the dam powers much of Mali’s urban electricity grid. By disabling its evacuation lines, Jnim is no longer targeting military forces alone—it is striking at the very backbone of the country’s economy. Power cuts in Bamako now paralyze public services, shut down businesses, and halt industrial activity almost instantly.
This campaign follows weeks of systematic attacks on fuel convoys arriving from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. By weaponizing fuel shortages, the jihadists aim to erode public confidence in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Once relatively shielded from the worst effects of the conflict, the capital is now at the heart of a grinding war of exhaustion.
Army response and fragile relief
The Malian military reports sustained ground and air operations across several regions, with armed escorts recently facilitating the entry of hundreds of tanker trucks into Bamako. This temporary logistical relief has alleviated pressure on gas stations under siege by desperate drivers. Yet the respite is fleeting: each convoy demands massive resources, and securing national highways over the long term remains beyond reach for now.
The Armed Forces of Mali (FAMa) face a double threat. In the west and center, Jnim continues ambushing supply lines and destroying critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, tensions in the north—particularly around Kidal—remain locked in a tense stalemate, with fresh clashes likely as rebel factions regroup. The government in Bamako is now forced to navigate two distinct battlefields with dwindling personnel and equipment.
Regional ripple effects of the blockade
The Malian crisis has spilled across borders, sending shockwaves through neighboring economies. Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire watch anxiously as trade corridors in West Africa falter. Slower cargo flows have already strained ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a significant share of transit serves the Sahel hinterland. The Confédération des États du Sahel—comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—has struggled to coordinate a unified response to the jihadists’ economic warfare.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared OMVS infrastructure. Further damage could directly disrupt power supplies in Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners, from development lenders to military suppliers, now face a delicate balance: supporting Bamako’s sovereignty while safeguarding vital cross-border assets.
On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a capital under siege underscores the conflict’s evolving nature. Jnim is no longer content with controlling territory; it seeks to suffocate the state itself. Fresh fighting is expected in the coming days, with the Kidal area likely to see renewed clashes.
