The jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has intensified its blockade of Bamako, Mali’s capital, over the past weekend. At least a dozen buses were set ablaze along the Ségou–Bamako corridor, a vital supply route linking the eastern regions to the city. Simultaneously, attackers targeted and destroyed electrical infrastructure tied to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region. While Malian forces continue counteroffensives, the economic stranglehold on the country remains unbroken.
Manantali: a strategic target in an economic war
The assault on Manantali is far from random. Operated jointly by Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal under the Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS), the dam is a linchpin of Mali’s power grid. By crippling its transmission lines, JNIM is no longer just striking at security forces—it is attacking the lifeblood of urban life, where outages paralyze public services, businesses, and industries in an instant.
This campaign follows weeks of systematic targeting of fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on public frustration with the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated from the worst effects of the conflict, now finds itself at the heart of this attritional struggle.
Army’s countermeasures offer temporary relief
The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) report ongoing ground and air operations across multiple regions. Recent military escorts have enabled hundreds of fuel tankers to reach Bamako, easing pressure on gas stations. Yet this respite is fragile: each convoy demands significant resources, and long-term road security remains out of reach for now.
FAMa faces a double challenge. In central and western Mali, JNIM has stepped up ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. In the north, near Kidal, tensions remain locked in a tense standoff, with further clashes likely against the Permanent Strategic Framework rebel alliance. Bamako is thus navigating two fronts with dwindling manpower and equipment.
Regional spillover deepens the crisis
The blockade’s impact extends far beyond Mali’s borders. Neighboring economies—particularly those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are feeling the squeeze as West African trade corridors degrade. Slowing goods flows are straining ports like Dakar and Abidjan, which depend heavily on transit to Mali’s hinterland. The Sahel States Confederation, uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has struggled to coordinate a unified response to this jihadist economic warfare.
The Manantali attack also raises urgent questions about shared OMVS infrastructure. Further damage could disrupt power supplies to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners—whether development donors or military suppliers—must weigh supporting Bamako’s sovereignty against safeguarding critical cross-border assets.
On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a besieged capital underscores the conflict’s evolving nature. JNIM is no longer content with territorial control—it seeks to suffocate a state. Renewed fighting is anticipated in the coming days, particularly around Kidal.
