An economist’s view on Cameroon’s political dynamics ahead of 2027
With Cameroon’s dual elections approaching in 2027, economist Serge Alain Godong offers an uncompromising analysis of the nation’s political face-off. Drawing on principles of “game theory” and the “prisoner’s dilemma,” Godong explains why, in his view, Maurice Kamto could not secure victory in 2018 and faces significant challenges in the upcoming polls. In a comprehensive text, he depicts a regime he describes as “openly twilight” and an electorate that tends to favor the certainty of the familiar over the promise of the unknown.
“The overtly twilight nature of the four-decade-old regime compels us, more than ever, to consider the dynamics of consolidation or change at play within Cameroon’s public sphere,” writes Serge Alain Godong, an economist with credentials from Sciences-Po Paris, EHESS, and Paris X, in his analytical piece. For Godong, the pivotal moment was 2018. He notes, “The astonishment gradually subsided following the ‘penalty scored’ that Mr. Kamto Maurice had publicly claimed to have taken.” Since then, Paul Biya has been sworn in, the MRC party has been effectively neutralized, and most Cameroonians have “acknowledged the peaceful continuation of his tenure on the comfortable seat of Etoudi.”
Godong bases his argument on “game theory,” relying on two core assumptions: “humans are fundamentally calculating” and “they require information” to secure their potential gains. An election, he posits, transforms into “a specific moment when a particular individual proposes a form of contract for the future to a national community.”
According to his analysis, Kamto is currently unable to present a contract more credible than the existing one. “The approximately 8.5 million Cameroonian voters expected to cast their ballots next year would only grant their votes to Mr. Kamto Maurice if they were absolutely convinced that he would, in the coming years, better safeguard their interests than Mr. Biya Paul.”
The economist identifies roughly 16 million current “winners” in the system: civil servants, employees in the formal private sector, liberal professionals, and their families. “It can therefore be estimated that some 1500 billion FCFA are annually distributed among the approximately 16 million Cameroonians who belong to these winners.” These individuals benefit from the national wage bill, public contracts, and major infrastructure projects. “It is these Cameroonians and their close associates who will undoubtedly vote for the RDPC and its candidate, with full awareness of their choice.”
This situation leads to the “prisoner’s dilemma”: without coordinated information and concrete proof of a superior gains model, voters prefer the status quo. “Cameroonians are therefore perfectly aware that the current situation is rather disadvantageous; yet many among them seem to distinctly prefer it to a presumably superior equilibrium position, about which they can say nothing with certainty.”
The analysis then delves into what Godong terms the “Bamiléké problem.” Citing Meredith Terretta, he recalls the distinction between “gung” and “lepue” – territory and freedom. From this, he suggests, emerges an “economic and social Darwinism” attributed to residents of the Grassfields region. Consequently, “Mr. Kamto is therefore not viewed through the ordinary lens of someone offering an alternative political proposal […] but rather as a malevolent avatar seeking to execute a diabolical plan.”
Godong discusses a “syndrome” distinct from the Stockholm syndrome. He describes a system of “eating together”: “everyone is connected to everyone else by some minor illicit dealing; each person takes from their neighbor.” This model defines “winners as simply those who ‘eat’ and losers as those who are hungry.”
Godong’s conclusion is stark: regardless of who emerges victorious, they “will have no other choice but to act swiftly and decisively.” Swiftly to redistribute resources, and decisively to make the economy the sole “battleground.” Achieving 6% growth, reducing the deficit, and combating corruption are all presented as “serious and urgent” priorities.
Ultimately, the analyst predicts that the political game “will become less and less sluggish, less and less rentier.” He also believes the country requires “a strong and committed Paul Biya” to manage the post-election period.
