Two years after the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was formed amid great fanfare, the façade of unity is crumbling. Behind the bold declarations of sovereignty and fiery speeches from the juntas in Bamako, Ouagadougou and Niamey, the harsh reality on the ground tells a different story: the only truly coordinated armed force capable of dictating its pace and striking at will remains the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).
The political amateurism and grandstanding of the military regimes are now clashing brutally with the devastating efficiency of the terrorist network. The JNIM orchestrates large-scale, meticulously synchronized offensives, striking multiple key regions simultaneously and overpowering national armies that are, on paper, better equipped. Neither the theoretical pooling of intelligence services within the AES nor the full geopolitical alignment with Moscow has succeeded in stemming the tide of losses.
From security dependence to cultural assimilation: the Russian trap
Faced with this security void, Captain Ibrahim Traoré and his counterparts have chosen to tether their nations’ futures to Russia. Yet this partnership has expanded far beyond mere military cooperation or the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries—now rebranded as the Africa Corps. The announcement that Russian will be introduced into Burkina Faso’s school curriculum starting next term marks a significant ideological shift. While framed as an act of cultural decolonization, the move is, in truth, a calculated effort to condition and restructure the minds of the country’s youth.
The implications of this linguistic shift extend far beyond the classroom. By embedding Russian language instruction early in education, the regime is laying the groundwork for deeper integration of Burkinabè youth into Moscow’s sphere of influence. The long-term risk is stark: as these students are later sent to Russia for studies or training, they could be systematically exploited. In a global climate of escalating tensions, concerns are mounting that Sahelian youth might end up as expendable pawns or even human shields in conflicts far from home, paying the price of Russian military backing for the juntas.
A spiral of isolation and hollow victories
As this cultural transition unfolds, the JNIM continues its relentless campaign of attrition. By paralyzing the three regimes, the armed group has confined their leaders to an almost complete state of isolation. In Mali, the prolonged public absence of Assimi Goïta following the deadly Bamako raid, which reportedly claimed the life of the Defense Minister, serves as the most glaring illustration of this isolation.
The verdict is damning: while terrorists steadily seize more territory, the military command structures sink deeper into political absurdity. Today, official propaganda channels celebrate minor logistical achievements—such as the resupply of an isolated town—or mere defensive responses—as if these were major triumphs. It is the ultimate admission of failure.
At the two-year mark, the AES is not celebrating the restoration of sovereignty; it is acknowledging the collapse of a flawed model. By conflating war propaganda with genuine military strategy and swapping dependence on the West for cultural and military subjugation to Moscow, the juntas have allowed the JNIM to set the agenda. The Sahel has not been liberated—it has merely traded one master for another, with the most vulnerable paying the highest price: its own youth.
