During a recent online discussion hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala on Monday, attention turned to the potential consequences if Washington’s patience were to diminish amidst the ongoing stagnation of the peace process between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. Joshua Z. Walker, an Associate Fellow with Chatham House’s Africa program and a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, offered a cautious yet profoundly concerning assessment.

Initially tempering expectations by stating, « Je ne suis pas prophète » (I am not a prophet), Walker then presented two distinct hypotheses. The first suggests a regression to the state of affairs preceding the significant American intervention of 2025, essentially a resurgence of the dynamics prevalent before Washington’s heightened engagement in the matter. The second posits a simple continuation of the existing deadlock.

It is this latter possibility that most troubles the researcher. « Je dis souvent que même s’il n’y a pas de retrait du M23, chaque jour qui passe que le M23 continue d’occuper certaines parties de l’est du Congo, ils s’enracinent davantage », he elaborated, highlighting the growing M23 entrenchment.

According to Walker, the mere passage of time acts as an exacerbating factor: « C’est ça la crainte, en fait : c’est qu’on arrive à une situation où, rien que par le passage du temps, on finisse par aboutir à une situation où, de fait, on continue avec une partie de la RDC qui n’est pas du tout sous contrôle du gouvernement. » This implies a profound concern that prolonged inaction will solidify the M23’s presence, leading to a de facto loss of government control over significant portions of the eastern DRC.