The security situation in Mali is experiencing a rapid and alarming deterioration. Coordinated offensives by jihadist groups, coupled with separatist movements in the country’s north, have subjected the Malian state to multifaceted strategic pressure. Yet, beneath this visible reality, a deeper evolution is unfolding. Less dramatic than outright combat, this shift is far more decisive: the conflict’s true center of gravity is moving. What is currently at stake in Mali extends far beyond a purely military confrontation.
For over a decade, the Malian crisis has been primarily viewed through a security-focused lens. The deployment of national forces, supported by various international partners, aimed at stabilization through military means. While this approach managed to contain certain dynamics in the short term, it ultimately failed to produce the anticipated structural effects.
Armed groups filling the political void
Instead, this security-first strategy fostered a strategic illusion: the belief that restoring security would automatically precede the return of state authority. However, Mali’s experience now demonstrates the opposite. A state can maintain military projection capabilities while progressively losing political, social, and symbolic control over its territory.
In numerous regions across central and northern Mali, the reality of power has undergone a profound transformation. The state has not simply withdrawn; it has been replaced. Various armed groups, both jihadist and non-jihadist, have gradually established alternative forms of authority. To varying degrees, they now fulfill essential functions, including local security, conflict arbitration, economic regulation, and social organization.
This recomposition of power is not solely based on coercion. It also stems from a growing disconnect between the central state and a segment of the population. In these territories, the absence of public services, weak administrative presence, and the perception of a distant authority have created a vacuum that other actors have skillfully filled. In politics, a void never truly exists; it is always occupied.
The decisive battle: winning legitimacy
The Malian crisis has now entered a phase where the military dimension, though indispensable, is no longer sufficient. The true confrontation is occurring elsewhere: in the capacity to generate legitimacy.
Who genuinely protects the populace? Who delivers justice perceived as equitable? Who embodies credible and predictable authority? These questions now shape local choices. In this context, military superiority no longer guarantees victory. It can even prove to be without lasting effect if not accompanied by a political and social re-conquest.
Rethinking the strategic approach
Breaking the current stalemate necessitates a paradigm shift. The objective is no longer merely to retake positions or neutralize armed groups. It is about rebuilding a state presence capable of enduring within these territories. This demands an integrated approach, closely linking security, political, and social dimensions. The state must become visible again, not solely through its force, but through its utility.
This entails:
- The effective restoration of core governmental functions closer to the people;
- Re-engagement with communities through credible administrative and social frameworks;
- The reconstruction of local trust networks;
- The ability to regain the initiative in shaping public perceptions and narratives.
In essence, it is not simply about re-establishing state authority, but about making it legitimate once more.
Mali is not an isolated case. In many respects, it serves as a laboratory for the contemporary evolution of conflicts across the Sahel. In this region, competition among actors is no longer limited to military confrontation. It is part of a broader struggle for the organization of societies, territorial control, and influence over populations. This fundamental shift requires a re-evaluation of classic categories of warfare and stabilization. Power is no longer measured solely by the capacity for coercion, but by the ability to structure an accepted order.
An unresolved equation
The Malian crisis has entered a phase where the decisive question is no longer solely about territorial control, but about the reconstruction of the state’s political and social authority. The real battle is no longer fought exclusively on front lines. It is waged in the capacity to regain legitimacy, utility, and acceptance by the populations. For in the Sahel, no territory remains empty indefinitely. When a state recedes, other actors fill its place. However, the durable stabilization of Mali also requires the gradual return of political processes to the national arena.
This prospect remains particularly complex in a context marked by the weakening of political parties, the marginalization or exile of many civil figures, and the predominance of security-driven logics. The central question is therefore no longer just how to regain control of the territory, but under what conditions a credible political space can be recreated to support the reconstruction of the state and restore a shared legitimacy.
