Umaro Sissoco Embaló, ousted by the military ten months ago, is preparing to return to Guinea-Bissau. The former president, currently in exile, has officially declared his candidacy for the presidential election scheduled for 6 December 2026. His comeback bid unfolds in a country where the 2025 vote remains mired in controversy and the army continues to wield decisive influence over political life.
A political comeback with symbolic weight
Embaló, who was toppled in a military coup on 26 November 2025, has confirmed his intention to go back to Guinea-Bissau and run again for the presidency. His return is planned for 4 October. The former head of state aims to re-enter the electoral arena less than a year after being forced from power.
“I will be a candidate,” he stated. The 6 December poll is officially meant to conclude the military transition and restore an elected civilian government. Yet behind this electoral prospect lies a far more delicate question: under what conditions can Embaló realistically compete, and what role will he play in a political landscape profoundly altered since his removal?
Coup follows a fiercely disputed presidential race
To grasp the significance of this candidacy, one must go back to 26 November 2025. Three days earlier, Bissau-Guineans had voted in a highly contested presidential and legislative election. Embaló, seeking a second term, and his main rival Fernando Dias both claimed victory.
On 26 November, as the electoral commission was due to publish preliminary results the next day, soldiers seized control of state institutions. Embaló was arrested and the electoral process suspended. General Horta N’Tam, then chief of staff and a close ally of Embaló, was subsequently installed as transitional president.
The junta justified its intervention as necessary to preserve national security and to prevent an alleged destabilisation plot involving, it claimed, figures linked to drug trafficking. No public evidence has independently substantiated that accusation.
The coup also obliterated the electoral process. The electoral commission stated that tally sheets, computers and servers containing vote data had been seized or destroyed. As a result, it is now impossible to officially determine the outcome of the November 2025 presidential election.
That absence of results continues to fuel controversy. Embaló’s opponents have accused him of orchestrating or facilitating the putsch himself to block the release of results that would have been unfavourable to him. Several observers have raised this hypothesis, but it has never been established as fact. The close ties between Embaló and General Horta N’Tam have nevertheless fed suspicions.
A return to a transformed political system
In ten months, Guinea-Bissau has changed profoundly. The junta held a constitutional referendum on 30 August 2026, which, according to provisional results, approved a new constitution significantly expanding presidential powers. The president will be able to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and government and, under certain circumstances, dissolve parliament.
This reform comes just months before the presidential election. The opposition, notably the PAIGC, had called for a boycott of the referendum, denouncing a process conducted under military control. The vote was nonetheless declared approved with about 70% of ballots cast.
Another potentially decisive factor for Embaló: the new constitution requires presidential candidates to have resided continuously in the country for the five years preceding the election. It also imposes a deposit of 50 million CFA francs. These new rules could therefore become a major obstacle for the former president, who has been in exile since his overthrow.
Can Embaló genuinely reclaim power?
The question is now less about his return than about his ability to turn it into an electoral victory. Several factors pull in different directions.
On one hand, Embaló retains significant political networks. His former party, Madem G15, remains a presence in the political landscape, while several figures from his circle continued to hold responsibilities during the transition. The military leadership itself is headed by a former close associate, even though the junta now insists it is conducting an independent transition.
On the other, his image is deeply controversial. His adversaries accuse him of having weakened democratic institutions during his term and of governing amid repeated tensions with parliament and the opposition. Before the 2025 coup, the country had already experienced several politico-military crises.
Crucially, one essential indicator is missing: the result of the November 2025 presidential election. With no official result published, it is impossible to assert that Embaló then held a majority—or, conversely, that he was on the verge of losing. The conflicting victory claims made at the time by Embaló and Fernando Dias do not constitute a reliable electoral measurement.
The only certainty is that Embaló’s announced return opens a new phase of uncertainty. Its success will depend notably on his eligibility under the new constitutional rules, the actual organisation of the vote, the opposition’s capacity to regroup, and the army’s stance.
December 6 could thus become a decisive moment for Guinea-Bissau. But before knowing whether Umaro Sissoco Embaló can reclaim the presidency, a more fundamental question remains: will the country this time manage to hold an election whose results are actually published and recognised by all political actors?
After decades of coups, institutional crises and contested ballots, that is probably where the true significance of the December vote will be decided.
