On the surface, the nations spanning the Sahelian belt—a geographical expanse stretching from Mali to Chad—hardly appear to be a new economic promised land. To put it plainly, this is no Singapore for foreign direct investment. The core economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reveal significant challenges. In Mali, a staggering 47% of its 25.9 million inhabitants are under 15 years old, and only a quarter of its land is arable. The country ranks 188th out of 193 in the UN Development Programme’s Human Development Index, with nearly 45% of its population living below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey present similar statistics, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living below the poverty threshold, according to the World Bank. All three are landlocked nations, currently governed by military leaders who have forged the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), seemingly with the distant approval of the Kremlin, aiming to dismantle remaining French strongholds. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was intended to usher in prosperity, which they claimed had been denied by Europeans, but this has not materialized. Nevertheless, two neighboring countries, Algeria and Morocco, are now extending their services.
Morocco: an atlantic gateway
Through the development of the Dakhla Atlantic port, the Kingdom of Morocco is proposing a facility in the Western Sahara that could rival Tangier Med as a major European hub. Construction is slated for completion in 2028, with operations commencing the following year. The vision for this infrastructure is to serve as a principal entry point for West Africa and a vital conduit to the Americas. Rabat has already hosted the three leaders of the AES. From a geopolitical perspective, the proposal is astute: a port from which a railway line (though not yet finalized) would extend, effectively providing the three landlocked nations with crucial access to the ocean, thereby fostering their economic growth. Morocco’s strategic motivation, given its geographical isolation due to its conflict with Algeria, is twofold: to demonstrate that its Western Sahara development plan benefits the entire sub-region, and to indirectly combat the jihadist groups destabilizing the Sahel by offering opportunities to a disenfranchised youth. The Sahel region is experiencing rapid population growth, with its demographic projected to double within a decade.
Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline to europe
Algeria, which had previously experienced strained relations with Niger, reconciled with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government, in mid-February. Algeria proposed to commence construction of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline segment “immediately after Ramadan.” This pipeline, originating in Nigeria, would now traverse Niger before reaching Algeria. Spanning 4800 kilometers, it is designed to supply natural gas to Europe. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbons company, would oversee construction within Niger and train Nigerien personnel for its operation. This commitment to local training is a significant advantage, particularly when compared to certain other international players, such as China, which often do not prioritize local capacity building for managing national resources.
two complementary strategies in contention
In Madrid and then Washington (February 23 and 24), discussions began regarding Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara. Should this conflict, now in its fiftieth year, finally be resolved, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the Sahel’s explosive security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent the AES states from exploiting the rivalries between the two regional capitals.
Jihadism flourishes amidst the combined scourges of poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algeria and Rabat, each pursuing their own agenda, seek to disrupt this devastating cycle. Each nation leverages its unique strengths: Algeria offers its hydrocarbon resources and Sonatrach’s technical expertise, while Rabat emphasizes its grand infrastructure projects and its ambition to serve as a crucial hub connecting three continents (Africa, America, Europe). These two strategies, though inherently complementary, are unfortunately pitted against each other due to the ongoing Sahrawi conflict. This divergence is a missed opportunity.
*On September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, demanded that Algeria “cease supporting international terrorism.” In response, Algeria’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Attaf, denounced this as “the rantings of a ruffian.”
