Political analyst Christian Moleka presented a comprehensive assessment of Kinshasa’s military and diplomatic strategies in the ongoing conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Speaking during a live online discussion, Moleka highlighted a significant disparity between planned investment and actual outcomes. He noted that despite a substantial $4.5 billion allocation for military programming from 2022 to 2025, the Congolese armed forces (FARDC) have consistently failed to gain the upper hand against the AFC/M23 rebels since their seizure of Bunagana in 2022, suggesting that on-the-ground results fall short of expectations.
Regarding diplomatic efforts, Moleka acknowledged several notable achievements. These include the European Union’s implementation of sanctions targeting Rwanda, a discernible shift in how the conflict is perceived in Washington, and the unanimous passage of a resolution by the United Nations Security Council. However, he underscored a persistent disconnect between these diplomatic triumphs and the harsh realities on the ground. He referenced a United Nations Group of Experts report, which indicated that the M23 has expanded its occupied territory by an additional 35% since the Doha agreements. He summarized these diplomatic instruments as providing ‘only partially lasting results.’
When pressed about the primary reason for this mixed assessment, Christian Moleka unequivocally stated, ‘I would attribute it more to the military aspect.’ He drew an analogy between the interplay of diplomacy and military action, likening it to a two-person dance. ‘One cannot maintain a diplomatic position without a supporting military component,’ he explained. Moleka cautioned that the international gains secured by Kinshasa could eventually prove detrimental if not bolstered by a more advantageous military balance of power on the battlefield.
Moleka concluded by placing the conflict within a broader historical context, describing it as a ‘war of attrition’ that has endured for three decades. He emphasized that ‘it is not intensity that matters, but the capacity to hold out for a long time.’ This, he suggested, represents a formidable challenge for both the Democratic Republic of Congo’s diplomatic efforts and its armed forces.
