The latest United Nations experts’ report on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) sheds light on deepening divisions within the Alliance Fleuve Congo/Mouvement du 23 mars (AFC/M23), particularly regarding military expansion, resource allocation, and political ambitions tied to Kinshasa. The document, submitted to the UN Security Council, reveals a movement grappling with internal fractures and external pressures.
Military leadership and external influences
While General Sultani Makenga retains formal control of AFC/M23’s military command, his authority has come under increasing strain from both within the movement and from Rwanda. Meanwhile, Bertrand Bisimwa and Corneille Nangaa—the latter a former head of the DRC’s Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI)—continue to lead the group’s political wing. Reports confirm that both military and political leaders of AFC/M23 receive ongoing support from Rwandan authorities and intelligence services.
Political ambitions vs. military strategy
Tensions between AFC/M23’s political and military factions have intensified, with a stark divide emerging over strategic priorities. While figures like Nangaa and former President Joseph Kabila reportedly harbor ambitions to seize power in Kinshasa, many within the M23 leadership oppose any military expansion beyond the North-Kivu and South-Kivu provinces. Compounding these disagreements are fierce disputes over resource access and distribution, with allegations of preferential treatment for Tutsi officers and fighters surfacing.
The UN experts’ report highlights that “while some political leaders push for broader military operations, most M23 commanders prefer to consolidate control within existing territories rather than expand their footprint.”
Territorial divisions and combat strength
The AFC/M23 has structured its occupied territories into three distinct “defense zones,” each led by a different commander:
- General Baudoin Ngaruye oversees the first zone, covering Nyiragongo, Rutshuru, and Lubero.
- Brigadier General Justin Gacheri Musanga commands the second zone, encompassing Masisi and Walikale.
- General Innocent Byamungu leads the third zone in South-Kivu.
The movement’s combat force is estimated at approximately 30,000 fighters. This tally includes:
- A core group of former members from the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) and the original M23.
- Recruits mobilized since 2021, drawn from the diaspora and refugee camps in Rwanda.
- Thousands of defectors from recent promotions within the FARDC (Armed Forces of the DRC), National Police, and Wazalendo militias, who joined after the fall of Goma.
- Members of newly formed local defense forces and police units.
Ongoing challenges and stalled negotiations
The UN experts’ report arrives at a critical juncture, as the security and humanitarian situation in eastern DRC continues to deteriorate. Persistent tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali further complicate efforts to implement the Washington Agreement, signed nearly a year ago at the ministerial level. Disagreements over the agreement’s interpretation have stalled its execution, while the Doha process, mediated by Qatar, has also failed to produce breakthroughs. The planned Montreux phase in Switzerland, intended to revitalize negotiations, yielded limited results, and the Middle East’s escalating crises have since diverted attention away from the DRC conflict.
With both the Washington and Doha processes faltering, the AFC/M23’s internal divisions—exacerbated by competing ambitions and resource rivalries—pose significant obstacles to sustainable peace in the region. The report underscores the urgent need for coordinated international mediation to prevent further destabilization.
