Three years after the coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, Niger’s military leadership remains locked in diplomatic tension with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The regional bloc had swiftly condemned the putsch and imposed sanctions, escalating tensions that soon involved neighboring Sahelian nations.
By the time ECOWAS issued its ultimatum calling for Bazoum’s reinstatement, both Mali and Burkina Faso—also under military rule—had already aligned with Niger in rejecting the demands. The three countries later formalized their defiance by forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in early 2025, signaling a definitive break from ECOWAS. Yet, despite the withdrawal, communication channels between the opposing blocs have remained open.
Lansana Kouyaté emerges as key negotiator
International affairs analyst Pape Ibrahima Kane highlights a pivotal shift: ECOWAS has designated former Guinean Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté as the lead mediator in talks with the AES bloc. Kane notes that Kouyaté’s appointment reflects a strategic pivot toward addressing regional security concerns first, as instructed during ECOWAS’ latest summit in Freetown.
“The July 18 meeting set a promising tone—both sides are now aligned on initiating substantive dialogue,” Kane states. He emphasizes Niger’s unique vulnerability, as it relies on Benin and Nigeria—both ECOWAS members—for critical infrastructure such as electricity and the port of Cotonou. Kane expresses confidence that Kouyaté will prioritize these logistical challenges in negotiations.
New leadership, renewed dialogue efforts
Another encouraging sign comes with the appointment of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as ECOWAS chair and the ascent of Romuald Wadagni to Benin’s presidency. Faye’s early 2024 visits to the AES countries, followed by Wadagni’s post-inauguration trip to Niamey, underscore a deliberate outreach to mend fractured relations.
Kane observes that Faye and Wadagni differ markedly from predecessors like Alassane Ouattara and Macky Sall, whose leadership styles were often criticized. He also points to a fresh ECOWAS team in Abuja, poised to implement a less polarizing agenda.
Sahanine Mahamadou, a senior advisor to Mohamed Bazoum and head of his customary, religious, social, and humanitarian affairs unit, remains skeptical. He insists the junta’s refusal to engage in dialogue has been the primary obstacle to reconciliation.
“If these leaders truly value their country, they must create pathways for civilian governance. Military rule has no place in modern African states,” he argues, subtly advocating for Bazoum’s return. Despite his detention, Bazoum has yet to sign a resignation letter, and a March resolution by the European Parliament condemned his detention—sparking strong reactions from Niamey, which accused Brussels of interference.
Bazoum’s detention: a diplomatic stumbling block
Jérôme Pigné, founder of the Sahel Strategic Security Network, frames the dilemma facing the European Union: how to uphold its democratic values while maintaining engagement with Niamey. He describes the situation as “a high-wire act—no one has yet found the right balance.”
Pigné notes that Niger was once a key EU partner, and Brussels is now reassessing its cooperation framework with the junta-led government. While dialogue persists, the EU’s dilemma persists over balancing principle with pragmatism.
A March report by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) suggested Europe offer the military regimes “comprehensive support to stabilize their nations,” including intelligence-sharing, military equipment, and security training. The SWP also urged continued political engagement with regional actors, cautioning that Brussels should not expect immediate behavioral changes from the juntas.
The path forward remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: both sides are cautiously exploring avenues to rebuild trust—even as fundamental differences over governance and legitimacy linger.
