Cameroon’s public investment execution rate witnessed a dramatic decline during the first quarter of 2026, marking a particularly challenging start to the fiscal year. By the end of March, ordered investment expenditures had barely reached 45 billion FCFA, a stark contrast to the 175.5 billion FCFA recorded during the same period last year. This represents an absolute decrease of 130.5 billion FCFA, or a substantial 74.4% contraction year-on-year. Consequently, the execution rate for investment credits allocated in the 2026 finance law fell to an unprecedented 2.5%, an unusually low figure even for a historically slow initial quarter.
PROBMIS IA: a technical transition stalls the spending pipeline
The Ministry of Finance (Minfi) attributes a significant portion of this slowdown to the migration of budget management operations to a new IT platform, PROBMIS IA, which became operational at the start of the fiscal year. The Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document (DPBMT) for 2027-2029, prepared ahead of the Budget Orientation Debate, explicitly acknowledges that technical constraints arising from this transition hampered the processing of financial transactions. Current expenditures fared only marginally better, achieving an execution rate of 14.7% by the end of March.
The disruption was particularly severe for investments funded through domestic resources, which registered an execution rate of merely 0.3%. Investments supported by external funding performed slightly better at 5.2%, though this figure also remains modest. Essentially, the entire spending chain became congested precisely when government departments were expected to initiate their first commitments of the year. The Minfi has taken responsibility for this slower-than-usual rollout.
External financing: significant decline in disbursements
Compounding the technical friction was a less favorable environment for mobilizing resources. By the end of March, loans and grants actually secured totaled only 137.5 billion FCFA, a sharp drop from the 327.6 billion FCFA mobilized a year prior. This represents a decrease of 190.1 billion FCFA, or a 58% year-on-year reduction. The decline impacted both project-specific loans and grants, as well as general budget support.
Breaking down the figures, project loans only attracted 39.4 billion FCFA against a quarterly forecast of 206.7 billion FCFA, resulting in a realization rate of just 19%. Grants barely reached 0.1 billion FCFA, falling far short of the anticipated 18.5 billion FCFA, while no budget support disbursements were recorded throughout the period. This combination of factors inevitably impacted investments financed by external resources, whose timelines are closely tied to the disbursement pace of international donors.
In total, budgetary resources mobilized by the Cameroonian state amounted to 1,331.4 billion FCFA by the end of March, against an annual target of 8,683.9 billion FCFA. The realization rate stood at 15.3%, down from 19.6% a year earlier. On the expenditure side, total ordered spending reached 1,547.1 billion FCFA, a 2.9% decrease compared to the 1,593.2 billion FCFA recorded the previous year. Current expenditures, excluding interest, also declined by 80.5 billion FCFA, settling at 566.1 billion FCFA.
Tangible risk for SND30’s structural projects
The first quarter is typically a period of lower investment credit utilization, primarily due to procurement delays and the gradual ramp-up of construction projects. However, the magnitude of this year’s observed downturn far surpasses usual patterns. Should such a significant delay persist, it would place considerable strain on the timeline for critical infrastructure projects outlined in Cameroon’s National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30).
Sectors heavily reliant on public procurement find themselves on the front lines. The building and public works industry, construction materials, engineering, and transport sectors are intimately dependent on the state’s ability to order capital expenditures within scheduled timelines. A sustained execution rate below projections would inevitably impact the cash flow of awarded companies and the overall dynamism of domestic economic activity.
The immediate challenge for Cameroonian authorities now involves swiftly resolving the technical impediments of PROBMIS IA and accelerating the mobilization of external financing. These are indispensable conditions for recovering the ground lost over the past three months. Achieving the 2026 objectives will largely hinge on this dual capacity for adjustment.
