Event overview
This discussion is presented by the CERI research group Africa: citizenship, violence and politics in partnership with the Africa Programme. For those following Mali English news, this seminar offers critical insights into the evolving regional dynamics.
Date: 24 February 2026, from 18:00 to 19:30
Location: Room K011, 1 pl. Saint-Thomas-d’Aquin, 75007, Paris
Since its formation in 2017, the Al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has emerged as a primary power in the central Sahel. Operating through various katibas, the organisation has successfully challenged state sovereignty in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, establishing its own systems of territorial governance.
However, since 2019, the group’s trajectory has shifted toward the Gulf of Guinea. This movement into West Africa Mali borders involves increasing activity in northern Bénin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire. While this southward push seems calculated, it follows an inconsistent pattern: Ghana has remained largely untouched; Côte d’Ivoire experienced a surge in attacks between 2020 and 2022 followed by a sudden silence; and Bénin saw a sharp escalation in violence throughout 2025.
The expansionary dilemma
A recent report by Crisis Group investigates this complex geography of growth. It suggests that territorial expansion is not always a straightforward objective but rather a strategic dilemma for JNIM. Internal leadership often faces conflicting priorities. Failing to expand might allow rival groups to seize territory or alienate local militants. Conversely, rapid growth risks overextending limited resources, potentially leading to internal friction and organisational collapse.
In the current landscape of Mali politics, defined by the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and its departure from CEDEAO, understanding JNIM’s internal logic is vital. For observers tracking Bamako news today and Mali security, these insights are essential for developing effective security frameworks against the spread of armed jihadism in the region.
Panel of experts
Jean-Hervé Jézéquel (International Crisis Group)
As the Sahel Project Director for the International Crisis Group, Jean-Hervé Jézéquel conducts extensive field research on the political and security crises affecting the Sahel. He earned his doctorate from the EHESS in 2002.
Marte Beldé (Sciences Po Bordeaux)
Marte Beldé is a postdoctoral researcher involved in the GOVJIHAD project, which examines the ideology and political economy of jihadist movements. Her 2025 doctoral thesis focused on the expansion of Salafi-jihadi groups in Sikasso, Mali.
Beatriz de León Cobo (GEMASS – Sorbonne Université)
Beatriz de León Cobo is a doctoral candidate specialising in radicalisation. She is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) and leads the Europe-Sahel Dialogue Forum at the Francisco de Vitoria University.
Moderator: Dan Sanaren (CERI–Sciences Po / CNRS)
For more updates on the region, stay tuned to Mali Seven news.
